The UK Ministry of Defence reports that Russian long-range aviation aircraft have not launched strikes against Ukraine since September 21, which marks a 21-day period.
While such breaks are not unusual, the previous similar pause in strikes occurred from March 9 to April 28, 2023, lasting for 51 days, as noted by the ministry.
In intelligence assessments, it is pointed out that in this case, Russia has likely nearly exhausted its supplies of serviceable AS-23 missile munitions after conducting winter attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
"This time, it is likely that Russian LRA are preserving existing stocks of AS-23 missiles as well as using this pause to increase useable stocks in anticipation of further heavy strikes against Ukraine over the winter," the statement says.
It is noted that Russia has recently focused its air strikes on grain-related targets in southern Ukraine, using Shahed drones. Russia conducted strikes on Ukrainian ports along the Danube River, which likely required a high level of precision due to the proximity of the targets to the Romanian border.
