Russian forces expanded the area under their control in Ukraine by 82.72 sq. km last week, from Monday, December 8, to Monday, December 15, which is only 10.5% less than the week before last, when Russian forces seized 92.49 sq. km, according to maps from the OSINT project DeepState.
Thus, the pace of Russian advances in December remains stable after a sharp increase in early November and a decline at the end of the month, but it is higher than in August–October, when Russian forces captured approximately 60–70 sq. km per week over a prolonged period.
Meanwhile, in the Huliaipole direction, which accounted for a significant share of Russian gains in November, the advances of Russian forces last week nearly stopped, totaling only 2.67 sq. km, compared to 13.68 sq. km the week before last and 61.83 sq. km in the last week of November.
In contrast, Russian forces accelerated advances in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia directions in western Donetsk region, returning to mid-November rates—they captured 49.87 sq. km last week, up from 33.1 sq. km the week before last. These directions accounted for more than half of the area seized by Russian forces over the week.
In the Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv region and the neighboring Lyman area in northern Donetsk, Russian forces increased occupied territory by 7.87 sq. km (compared to 15.04 sq. km the week before last). At the same time, Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated 40.21 sq. km in the Kupiansk area.
In the Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, and Siversk directions in eastern and northern Donetsk, Russian forces captured 22.31 sq. km over the week, almost the same as the week before last (24.6 sq. km).
No other advances were recorded last week, according to DeepState. In the Vovchansk direction in Kharkiv region near the Russian border, where Russian forces occupied 6.07 sq. km the week before last, advances stopped last week. On the Kharkiv direction near the village of Milove, Russian advances were not recorded last week or the week before.
The “gray zone” of undefined control last week decreased by 0.1 sq. km in the Huliaipole direction, by 26.94 sq. km in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia directions, and by 18.74 sq. km in the Kupiansk direction. In contrast, it increased by 20.61 sq. km in the Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, and Siversk directions in eastern and northern Donetsk.
Overall, the gray zone decreased by 25.17 sq. km last week, compared to 0.7 sq. km the week before last.
Thus, on average, Russian forces expanded controlled territory by 11.8 sq. km per day last week, while the gray zone decreased by 3.6 sq. km per day.
The week before last, Russian forces expanded their control by 13.2 sq. km per day, while the gray zone decreased by 0.1 sq. km per day.
In the last week of August and the first week of September, Russian-occupied territory increased by an average of 10.7 sq. km per day, 1.5 times less than in mid-August. In September, Russian advances continued at somewhat slower but stable rates throughout October.
