The lowest corn harvest since 2007-2008 is expected in the countries of the European Union, which is caused by an abnormal drought that has gripped the main corn-producing countries in the past few weeks.
Against this background, the EU imports 13 million tons of corn from Ukraine to cover its needs, according to the website of the electronic grain exchange GrainTrade with reference to the report of the chief analyst of Argus Media (France) Nathan Cordier, which he announced during the meeting of grain traders “Trend and Hedge Clubâ€.
According to him, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary are the largest corn producers in the EU, and production performance in these countries will be disappointing in 2022.
We expect Romania to harvest 8 million tons of corn, Hungary 4.5 million tons, and Bulgaria 15 million tons. These countries exported corn to Spain, Italy and Turkey, which were the main markets. low harvest in Brazil, exported grain to the Middle East and North Africa. This season, we expect that the supply of exports will be low.
Nathan Cordier, chief analyst of Argus Media
The expert noted that three heat waves have occurred in France since the beginning of corn sowing, so its harvest is expected at 11.2 million tons, and will be harvested from only 68% of the area. Thus, the yield of corn in France will be only 8 tons / ha, which is the worst result of the country in the last 20 years.
According to Cordier’s forecasts, Europe will be forced to import 23 million tons of corn to cover its needs, of which it will import 13 million tons from Ukraine, and another 5 million tons from Brazil.
As reported, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky in early August announced an increase in the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this season by approximately 5-7 million tons – up to 65-67 million tons from 60 million tons.
At the same time, in the July report, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10.2 million tons. The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
In early July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast – up to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons.
According to her forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+ 8.3% compared to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
