Despite record discounts and active marketing policies, car dealers in Russia are unable to sell excess inventory. In the first half of 2025, new car stockpiles decreased by only 20–30 thousand units from nearly half a million at the beginning of the year. In June, 90.2 thousand new cars were sold, while production and imports combined totaled 103.8 thousand, which only worsened the imbalance.
Dealer inventories cover 4–7 months of sales, whereas the norm is considered two months. One-third of dealer networks are on the verge of bankruptcy, particularly due to rising costs for rent and debt servicing. The biggest losses are recorded by companies operating on credit.
The market’s response has been a business contraction: showrooms are closing and staff are being cut. One leading dealer in Moscow has already laid off a quarter of its personnel. AvtoVAZ, which expects a market decline of 25% (down to 1.1 million cars), is moving to a four-day workweek starting in September.
At the same time, luxury car sales have increased by 19%. Over six months, Russians purchased 320 premium vehicles, including 100 Rolls-Royce cars (+56% compared to last year). Deliveries are made through parallel imports.
Overall labor market anxiety is also rising: the share of companies planning layoffs increased from 6.9% in January to 11.5% in June. The highest number of dismissals is in the mining industry, machine building, and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, expectations for wage growth have sharply decreased: the median estimate dropped from 8.4% to 5.3%.
