Over the past 30 years, the depth of seasonal thawing of the upper layer of permafrost in Russia has increased from 45 to 70 cm. This is happening in regions that are critically important for the country’s economy, where the main centers for extracting oil, gas, and other minerals are located.
Overall, permafrost covers 65% of Russia’s territory, and major cities such as Vorkuta, Norilsk, Yakutsk, and Magadan lie within the permafrost zone. Russia’s Arctic regions with permafrost account for more than half of the entire Arctic territory and generate 10% of Russia’s GDP and 20% of its exports; they produce 18% of its oil, 90% of its natural gas, 90% of its nickel and cobalt, 60% of its copper, and 100% of its diamonds.
The short-sightedness of Soviet and Russian engineers and builders—who designed infrastructure solely on the assumption that permafrost would remain permanently frozen—has led to annual seasonal destruction of structures. Almost all Arctic residential construction (81%) was built between 1960 and 1999.
More than 40% of buildings in the permafrost zone have already been deformed: in Vorkuta – 80%, Magadan – 55%, Dikson – 35%, Tiksi – 22%, and in Yakutsk and Norilsk – 9–10%. At the same time, 1,260 km of major gas pipelines and thousands of kilometers of roads are at risk.
By 2050, the population of Russia’s permafrost territories is projected to decrease by 61% compared to 2017, falling to 1.7 million people.
