Alexander Kovalenko: Russian forces' drone and munitions deployment in June 2024

By Alexander Kovalenko

"Application of Shahed-131/136 UGVs, FPV drones, and 'Lancet' munitions in the first half of June...

Over the first two weeks of June 2024, Russian forces deployed 225 Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones, out of which 208 were shot down. Compared to the previous week, there has been a sharp reduction in the use of Shahed-131/136 UGVs. Specifically, while during the first week of June the Russian forces deployed 171 kamikaze drones, during the second week this number decreased by more than threefold to 54.

Nevertheless, the intensity of drone usage remains quite high for the first half of June, potentially comparable to the peak in May sorties, if not slightly higher.

Furthermore, such a significant difference between the first and second weeks of June indicates the absence of a systematic approach to forming combat units and conducting regular terror operations. Despite renewed deliveries from Iran, doubts arise regarding Russia's ability to ramp up production of Shahed-131/136 UGVs to mass levels.

FPV drones.

During the second week of June, more than 2,000 FPV drones were deployed. Consequently, the total for the first two weeks of June exceeded 3,500.

The most intensive day for FPV drone usage was June 12, with over 450 deployed within a day. On average, during the second week of June, daily FPV drone usage approached 300.

Clearly, June is set to become a record month for the deployment of FPV drones by Russian forces.

'Lancet' munitions.

The 'Lancet' barrage ammunition was not deployed with increased intensity during the second week of June. On average, there were 10 deployments per day, which is the typical statistic for most months.

It is evident that in June, the use of 'Lancet' munitions will not exceed 250 deployments.

The second week of June, and consequently the first half of the month, demonstrated a decrease in the deployment rate of Shahed-131/136 UGVs on one hand, and an increase in the use of FPV drones on the other.

Considering observations from previous months on the deployment processes of these offensive means, one can note the instability and acute dependence of the Shahed-131/136 category on deliveries from Iran, the regular and systematic increase in FPV drone usage, and the consistently stable use of 'Lancet' munitions."