In the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine increased its soybean oil exports by 52% compared to the same period of the previous season, reaching a record 245.4 thousand tons.
According to GrainTrade, this figure rose by 38% in February compared to January, reaching 59.1 thousand tons.
Poland remains the main buyer of Ukrainian soybean oil, increasing its purchases by nearly 25%, although its share in the total export of this product from Ukraine has decreased from 73% to 61% compared to the previous season.
Analysts also noted that after a long pause, India significantly increased its purchases. In the first half of 2024/25, 25 thousand tons of soybean oil were shipped to India, compared to 216 thousand tons during the same period of 2023/24. In February, shipments to India grew by 77% compared to January, reaching 11 thousand tons, the highest level since March 2020.
Currently, soybean oil is being offered at $920-950/ton FCA – factory, and demand is gradually increasing. The strengthening of the euro against the dollar is boosting shipments to the EU, but traders are also selling oil to other countries.
Meanwhile, global soybean oil prices are falling due to forecasts of a high harvest in South America and trade wars between the U.S. and Mexico, Canada, and China.
For example, May soybean oil futures on the Chicago exchange fell by 12.3% over the month to $916/ton (-15% year-over-year) after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and soybean oil.
China's 100% tariffs on Canadian canola and its oil have also collapsed prices for rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which has further pressured soybean oil prices.
May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell by 12.4% last week to 574 CAD/ton, or $398/ton (-16.7% month-over-month), further increasing pressure on rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices in the EU.
At the same time, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested from 60% of the planted areas, and the country is expected to harvest 170 million tons of soybeans, compared to 154 million tons last year. In Argentina, sunflower harvests are underway, and soybean harvests are starting, with a projected yield of 49 million tons (compared to 50 million tons last year). As a result, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the market is expected to sharply increase in the coming months, leading to a decrease in prices.
