Russia is preparing to deploy its Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) system in Belarus as part of a broader effort to increase pressure on Europe, while simultaneously ramping up serial production and modernization of the missile, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
“We are observing preparations for the deployment of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile on the territory of Belarus,” said Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, in a comment to Ukrinform. “Russia and Belarus are developing military facilities for the launcher, surveillance systems, and communications, which are elements of the Oreshnik system. However, as of now, these measures have not yet been implemented.”
Ivashchenko noted that Russia is physically capable of placing a missile launcher in Belarus, but stressed that without the full supporting infrastructure such a move would be largely symbolic. “Without completing the construction of the other system components, it would serve only as a mock-up,” he said.
Even if the Oreshnik were deployed on Belarusian territory, Minsk would have no authority to use it, Ivashchenko emphasized.
“The Oreshnik MRBM would remain within the unified command-and-control system of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces,” he said.
According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the potential deployment is aimed primarily at intensifying pressure on Europe and European institutions, rather than directly targeting Ukraine. “Deploying the Oreshnik on Belarusian territory is primarily a means of pressure on the EU and NATO, not on Ukraine,” Ivashchenko said.
He added that such a move would significantly expand Russia’s ability to conduct sudden strikes against European capitals.
“This step would allow Russia to expand its capabilities for delivering a sudden strike on the capital of any European country and would significantly reduce missile flight time compared to launches from the Kapustin Yar test range,” he stressed.
Ivashchenko also recalled that, as of May this year, Belarus does not host nuclear weapons.
“There are no nuclear weapons in Belarus, only their delivery systems,” he said in an earlier interview with Ukrinform.
At the same time, Russia is planning to significantly increase serial production of the Oreshnik missile and is considering options to modernize it.
“Russia intends to increase the serial production of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile and is exploring modernization options aimed at strengthening the strike potential of its warhead, including in a nuclear configuration,” Ivashchenko said.
According to him, the program is receiving priority funding from Russia’s National Wealth Fund, indicating the importance Moscow attaches to the missile’s development. More than 50 enterprises from Russia’s military-industrial complex are involved in serial production of the Oreshnik.
Among the key participants are the Research Institute of Command Instruments, the Central Research Institute of Marine Engineering, JSC Krasnodar Instrument-Making Plant Kaskad, JSC Kalugapribor, JSC Kaluga Electromechanical Plant, JSC Priboy, JSC Research Institute Soliton, and JSC Research Institute of Technical Systems Sinvent.
Ivashchenko also noted that the Oreshnik is largely based on an existing Russian missile platform.
“The Oreshnik is essentially the same missile as the RS-24 Yars, whose development began in the early 2000s,” he said. “The only difference is that the Oreshnik has two stages instead of three.”
