Currently, there are about 2,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus, who are responsible for logistics and support issues. This was reported by the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko.
According to him, in 2023, when Russia was effectively keeping separate units on the territory of Belarus under the guise of training exercises and coordination with Belarusian units, there were around 10-12 thousand Russian personnel stationed there. Rotations took place, but the average number of Russian troops remained at that level.
'What we have seen since then is a one-way rotation, meaning that Russia withdrew them (the troops) from Belarus to strengthen its grouping in the east, in active combat zones, without bringing in new units. Currently, there is no strike group or a large number of Russian troops there. There may still be some military personnel, individual units, but these are mostly logistics and support units that service aviation, electronic warfare units, and other operations. The number could be around 2,000,' Demchenko said.
He clarified that these are not combat units capable of conducting offensive operations.
Commenting on the upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercises 'Zapad-2025', scheduled for September, the spokesperson noted that the redeployment of Russian troops to Belarus could begin several months prior.
'This could happen several months in advance, and it’s important to understand which bases they will use. Even if the exercises are joint Belarusian-Russian ones, we cannot rule out that Belarusian units may go to Russia,' Demchenko said, reminding that these exercises have often been used to escalate the situation for informational purposes.
He reiterated that the Belarusian direction remains a threat to Ukraine and 'is not given less attention, even if the situation here is calmer than on the border with Russia.'
The spokesperson stressed that the Defense Forces continue to strengthen the border and build fortifications.
'As long as Belarus continues to support Russia, our intelligence units and all our actions will be aimed at having advance information about what is happening in Belarus and how it may pose a threat to Ukraine. The units on the border with Belarus – both the border guards and the SSU – with the help of local authorities, are enhancing fortifications to ensure strong defensive positions,' Demchenko noted.
He added that Ukrainian intelligence would be informed in time about the redeployment of troops for the exercises.
