The Russian Federation is experiencing a decline in wheat stocks and a significant reduction in its exports, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Intelligence data shows that in May 2025, Russia’s wheat exports dropped to 1.8 million tonnes, a sharp decrease compared to 2.4 million tonnes in April and 2.1 million tonnes during the same period last year.
The number of importing countries decreased from 43 to 16. Among them, the largest volumes were sent to Iran (270 thousand tonnes), while deliveries to Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia fell by half or more.
The number of exporting companies shrank from 77 to 18, and the number of transshipment ports decreased from 30 to 16.
In the traditionally export-oriented southern regions of Russia, wheat stocks fell by 49%, down to 4.7 million tonnes.
The domestic market is also showing a decline: only 7.9 million tonnes were sold in the first quarter.
The causes are a reduction in last year’s harvest (84 million tonnes compared to 92.8 million tonnes the previous year) and government export quotas (10.6 million tonnes until the end of June).
It is expected that total exports for the 2024/2025 season will amount to 40.7 million tonnes — 15 million tonnes less than last year.
The Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized that “the reduction in supplies confirms that the grain stolen from Ukraine in temporarily occupied territories has been exhausted, and Russia’s agricultural sector is entering a deeper crisis phase.”
Intelligence also stressed that if quotas remain and the expected drop in this year’s harvest occurs, exports in the next season will decline again.
