The European CBAM is one of the main factors that could soon have a significant negative impact on Ukrainian steel exports. The steel industry needs government support to defer the mechanism’s requirements and allow time for adaptation.
This opinion was expressed by Metinvest Group’s Chief Operating Officer, Oleksandr Myronenko, at the Business Wisdom Summit 2025.
According to him, the size of the carbon levy — and thus the competitiveness of products on the EU market — will depend on how modernized the production is.
“And this is also a major challenge for us, because right now we are unable to invest in modernization — it's hard to attract funding, as due to the war, no one is willing to invest in capital-intensive projects in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Myronenko.
According to Myronenko’s estimates, modernizing a plant — from decision-making to launch — takes 3–4 years. CBAM is set to come into force on January 1, 2026. At present, there are no exemptions or special conditions for Ukrainian products. Meanwhile, domestic manufacturers do not have access to the specialized financing or modernization grants available to European industrial producers.
Since the beginning of the war, the EU market has become a priority for Ukraine, so CBAM will have a negative effect on the Ukrainian economy.
According to the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, between 2026 and 2030, Ukraine’s GDP could shrink by 4.8–6.1%. For a wartime and post-war economy, this would be a major loss and a serious limitation on recovery efforts. Therefore, the country needs special conditions with a sufficient transition period.
“Even if the carbon levy is introduced in 2028, and the war ends in 2025 or 2026, we simply won’t make it in time. We really need state support to defer these requirements and allow time for adaptation. After the war ends, we’ll need at least 3–4 years for modernization. We will carry it out, but it's crucial that we are given time and the opportunity to implement everything,” Myronenko emphasized.
