In the third quarter of 2025, Ukrainian businesses maintained positive expectations for economic activity over the next 12 months, despite a moderate increase in inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
According to the National Bank’s quarterly survey of company executives, the Business Expectations Index stood at 102.5%, only slightly down from 103.1% in the previous quarter. Respondents continued to anticipate growth in the production of goods and services, as well as improvement in their own companies’ performance.
Businesses across 15 regions and most industries expected greater sales volumes and higher investments in machinery and equipment. However, hiring expectations remained restrained.
The war and its consequences remain the main factors limiting production growth, while the lack of qualified workers continues to have a significant impact. At the same time, the influence of exchange rate fluctuations has noticeably weakened.
Macroeconomic expectations
Businesses expect production in Ukraine to grow at a moderate pace over the next year, with a balance of responses at 6.1%, compared with 9.2% in the previous quarter. The strongest optimism came from energy and water supply companies, large enterprises, and exporters.
Inflation expectations rose slightly: annual inflation for the next 12 months is forecast at 11.4%, up from 10.9%. The share of respondents who expect inflation to exceed 15% increased from 15% to 22%.
War remains the most significant inflationary factor for nearly 80% of respondents. Expectations of rising global prices strengthened for the fifth consecutive quarter, while the influence of tax policy changes continued to ease.
Currency expectations also shifted upward to 44.11 UAH per U.S. dollar (from 43.84). About 60% of respondents expect the exchange rate to exceed 43.50 UAH/USD.
Company performance outlook
Businesses still rated their current financial standing negatively (balance: –4.5%) but remained cautiously optimistic about future improvement (balance: 1.7%). The most positive expectations came from the energy, utilities, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors.
Firms foresee faster growth in overall and export sales, with response balances at 11.0% and 16.1%, respectively. Manufacturing, utilities, and agriculture enterprises were the most optimistic about sales growth.
Investment expectations weakened slightly. The balance for spending on machinery and equipment dropped to 4.3% (from 7.8%), while investment in construction works remained unchanged at 0.0%.
Companies attracting foreign investment were more optimistic: the balance rose to 18.7%, and the share of firms planning to raise foreign capital increased to 23.3%.
Hiring intentions remained cautious, with the employment balance unchanged at –4.4%. Construction companies reported the most negative expectations, while agricultural enterprises predicted slight workforce growth.
The share of firms planning to take bank loans decreased marginally to 33.3%. High interest rates remain the main barrier to borrowing, cited by 47.7% of respondents. However, 41.6% said they have alternative sources of financing.
The share of companies planning to raise funds abroad rose slightly to 6.8%.
The quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 28, 2025, among 669 enterprises from 21 regions. Large firms made up one-third of respondents, with trade, manufacturing, and agriculture representing the largest sectors.
The Business Expectations Index reflects managers’ sentiment about their companies’ outlook over the next year. An index above 100 indicates overall optimism in the business environment, while a reading below 100 points to prevailing pessimism.
