Yuriy Romanenko: The situation in Israel will have very serious geopolitical consequences
Main image: Israeli forces cross a main road in an armored personnel carrier (APC) as additional IDF troops are deployed near the southern city of Sderot following an assault by Hamas terrorists, October 8, 2023. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)
Yuriy Romanenko, co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a political expert, and the chief editor of the Hvylia, shared his thoughts on the war in Israel during the "Diary of War" broadcast
"The situation in Israel will have very serious geopolitical consequences, regardless of the outcome. Even if Hamas is not completely defeated, it will still be considered a victory for them. Hamas is fighting for its internal agenda, and they have essentially made a strong claim to sideline the moderate wing in the Gaza Strip. It's important to understand that behind them are countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which have long-standing influence in the Palestinian situation.
So, Hamas, which uses Iranian support and Iranian technology, and has specific relations with Turkey, could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape. Again, this depends on whether Israel can completely defeat them or not.
I believe that Israel may not be able to fully achieve this because it would require a massive operation with significant resources. It's important to consider whether Israel is prepared for such an undertaking, especially if there is an expected attack from Hezbollah in the north. We have a situation where different sides will be shaking things up from multiple directions.
Furthermore, one needs to answer the question of what to do with Iran, which clearly stands behind Hamas. How will this affect Israel's domestic political situation? What about Israel's relationship with Egypt? The fact that the strike occurred on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War also has symbolic significance. Egypt will have to consider the image consequences as well because, let's not ignore the fact, many countries are celebrating what has happened.
Everything that is happening will undoubtedly impact the internal political situation in the Gaza Strip, the surrounding countries, and in triangular relationships such as Israel-US-Iran, and Iran-Israel-Russia. Israel must also not forget about Russia. For Israel, this is a moment of truth, and it includes reevaluating its stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Ukraine can potentially leverage this situation to improve its relations with Israel."