Vitkoff made an interesting remark: on Tuesday, at a meeting in Saudi Arabia, they plan to discuss the "framework of a peace agreement."
Essentially, this refers to the negotiation positions that will be presented to the Russians, including those for a ceasefire.
It's certainly intriguing to speculate about what might happen, but it's better to approach this through two conditional baskets: strengthening vs. weakening.
For example, Norway has decided to allocate an additional $4.6 billion in aid to Ukraine for 2025. This goes into the "strengthening" basket. The Norwegians have already approved a long-term support program and are discussing its extension until 2030, as well as an increase. Why? Because Ukraine is grinding down the troops of the Leningrad military district. This affects both the Baltic and the Arctic.
The European Council's intention to allocate an additional $150 billion for defense cannot yet be interpreted, as there are no details.
The most crucial factor will be the situation on the frontlines. For example, there are counterattacks in the Kharkiv region. If positive results come in the next few days, this will create a favorable backdrop. The Russians will try hard to spoil the atmosphere.
The Americans will push hard; they need results quickly.
I think that by Tuesday, we'll be bombarded with various "insider" reports about the "weakening" of negotiation positions, with attempts to justify Russian demands, from the acknowledgment of territorial losses to political concessions. At this stage, it is important for the Russians and their supporters to make sure that the entire process starts with a strong sense of betrayal and stirs up emotions. We shouldn't give them such a gift. Only listen to official statements.
The conditions will be difficult, in some areas, very tough. But the level of difficulty will also depend on the internal mindset.
If we can defend an acceptable framework in dialogue with the Americans, the Kremlin will certainly try to sabotage it. But they will try to shift the blame onto Ukraine.
How many such rounds are ahead is a mystery. Therefore, the focus remains on supporting the frontlines.
