Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service continues to monitor the activities of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” analyzing all changes related to sanctions pressure and efforts to bypass restrictions.
In October 2025, 140 tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products departed from Russian ports, exporting a total of 15.97 million tons (116.9 million barrels). Of these, 84 vessels belonged to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” 72 of which are under sanctions. The remaining 56 vessels were not part of the shadow fleet, but 15 of them were also subject to restrictions.
The main destinations were India (7.75 million tons, 72 voyages), China (4.77 million tons, 49 voyages), and Turkey (1.49 million tons, 16 voyages). The largest export volumes went through Russia’s Baltic and Far Eastern ports.
Following U.S. sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, Chinese state-owned companies—PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil—suspended purchases of Russian seaborne oil due to the risk of secondary sanctions. The private company Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, sanctioned by the EU and the UK, also declined new contracts. These refusals affected about 400,000 barrels per day, or up to 45% of Russian exports to China, mainly ESPO crude.
In Turkey, the STAR and Tupras refineries began shifting to non-Russian oil. STAR expects deliveries from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries in December (77–129 thousand barrels per day), while Tupras is increasing imports of Iraqi crude to 141 thousand barrels per day.
The reduction in Chinese purchases and the reorientation of Turkish refineries are increasing logistical costs and putting pressure on Russian oil exports. In October, petroleum product shipments fell to 1.9 million barrels per day—the lowest in 17 months—while domestic shortages of gasoline and diesel have emerged. Rail exports of gasoline dropped by 80% in the first half of October.
