By Iliya Kusa
What is currently happening in the Middle East puts the Trump administration in a very uncomfortable position. To some extent, it is a direct result of his foreign policy maneuvers and inconsistency.
The central question in the Israel-Iran confrontation is whether the United States will get involved in this war. Without Washington, Israel will not be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure or force Tehran into effective “capitulation.” But U.S. involvement in the conflict risks destabilizing the region even more severely than the war in Syria, creating massive shocks for global markets and regional states.
The Trump administration might decide to support Israel and begin bombing Iran, hoping for a quick military operation and a swift declaration of “victory.” Only in this scenario can political risks at home be minimized and the region not plunged into uncontrollable chaos.
Otherwise, the U.S. could find itself dragged into yet another Middle Eastern war, completely dismantling Trump’s political agenda and post-election image, while also worsening relations with other countries in the region—for whom the U.S. will be firmly viewed as a destructive force not to be relied upon. Furthermore, internal political division within Trump’s MAGA movement would be guaranteed.
On the other hand, if the U.S. does nothing and remains on the sidelines, it risks losing what little trust remains from Israel, damaging its reputation as a country capable of influencing global affairs, and may eventually be forced to negotiate with Iran—but from a position of weakness, if Tehran manages to hold out and retain its nuclear program.
In short, every option is bad. And from these bad options, Trump will have to choose. The only question is whether he will choose based on the short-term political cost to himself—or on the scale of consequences and the legacy he leaves behind.
