Former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volker believes that negotiations with Russia will not lead to a full-fledged peace agreement, but a cessation of hostilities could become possible when Moscow is unable to continue the war. He made these remarks on Monday during a discussion at the Ukrainian House in Davos, as part of the World Economic Forum.
“This will not lead to a peace agreement,” he said. “A peace agreement would depend on Russia’s consent to peace, and that will never happen. Even if they agree to return territories, even if there is a ban on deploying Coalition forces in Ukraine, Russia will always demand more.”
Volker noted that current negotiation processes are important primarily because they maintain alignment between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe on key issues — speeding Ukraine’s path to EU membership, preparing for future free elections, providing security guarantees, the possible deployment of Coalition forces to deter future aggression, and economic recovery.
The expert emphasized that the most likely and achievable outcome is depriving Russia of the ability to wage war.
“The result we should aim for, and which I believe is achievable, is that Russia will not be able to sustain the war; it will simply become too costly for them,” he said. “Ultimately, we will achieve a de facto ceasefire, after which we can focus on strengthening Ukraine and deterrence so that Russia does not attack again.”
He argued that the real guarantee of security is economic pressure on Russia. “The real guarantee is hitting Russia’s economy, public finances, oil and gas prices, and its ability to recruit people for the army,” he said.
Volker noted that the situation on the front remains “static.” “The front line has been roughly unchanged for about three years. Russia aims to recruit 30,000 troops per month, but fails to achieve this. Ukraine destroys as many as Russia recruits.” Putin expected to win in three days but has now been at war for 1,426 days, the expert noted.
He also said that Ukraine’s financing needs are around €50 billion per year, a level of support the European Union has already provided for several years.
“This is within the EU’s capacity, and they are already doing it. I am not too concerned about Europe’s ability to continue this support,” he emphasized.
Answering a question about how best to interact with the Trump administration, Volker said:
“My advice has always been: when dealing with the Trump administration, do not wait, panic, or complain. Do your homework, identify the problem, find a solution, and act proactively.” He noted that Denmark is currently acting this way regarding Greenland.
At the same time, he acknowledged the unpredictability of the U.S. president’s decisions.
“President Trump decides each day what he thinks he will do. You cannot say he feels bound by what he said the day before,” Volker noted.
