What is the connection between the Ukrainian issue and China? Direct, though not immediately obvious.
The U.S. defense doctrine defines China as the primary and main enemy.
The reason is the approaching hegemony of China:
- In the economy, they already lead in GDP by purchasing power parity.
- They lead in global trade.
- They control critical materials.
- They dominate in the number of registered patents.
- They are catching up in the semiconductor sector (with a maximum 2-year gap).
- They are catching up in the artificial intelligence sector (a few months gap).
- They are building the strongest army in the world (to be ready by 2027).
- They are the largest producer of automobiles, metallurgy products, titanium, chemicals, and electronics.
- They are the key player and driver of BRICS (an anti-American economic union).
- They are preparing to launch digital currencies to replace the dollar in international settlements.
- They are already transitioning to using the yuan in transactions with partners, including lending.
One could continue.
The reason for what’s happening: China’s hacking of the old world order system.
Where, without a clear external threat, they created conditions that turned them into an economic hegemon.
- China has dozens of long-term strategies (which, unlike Ukraine, they implement systematically).
- Through unfair competition (artificially undervaluing the yuan, unlike Ukraine, where the hryvnia is artificially overvalued), they have captured markets, destroying competition.
- China has a systematic policy of corrupting governments and corporate leaders of partners (Chinese companies allocate up to 5% of their turnover as unconfirmed expenses. And this is official).
- China provides its companies with zero-interest loans to finance countries (investments, trade).
And all this China has done by relying on the infrastructure of the old system – the old world order.
State Department and CIA analysts assess the risks of the U.S. losing global influence as very real.
The concern is heightened by Xi's statements about the need to revise the world order.
How can the U.S. eliminate the threat? The threat of not only losing global dominance but also the fragmentation of the U.S. as a consequence of weakening the country?
War with China?
Destroying the core of their technological potential?
- Not an option. It’s a nuclear country with enormous operational depth.
- Even a war over Taiwan - critical risks for the U.S.
What is China’s weakest spot?
- Its markets. Global trade.
And here is where they can be hit. The faster, the more effective the strike will be.
I dare to assume that Trump’s policy is specifically aimed at this. In particular:
- Tariffs on Chinese products (this is not critical for China).
- Tariffs on China’s partners? This already starts to hurt.
- A reduction in global trade hits the value chains where China is a key element.
- Launching a global recession – creating a “perfect storm”? Perfect!
- When you can’t use the logic of direct actions, you trigger controlled chaos. A logic that only you understand.
- A wave of recessions and crises in various sectors (finance, stock market, banking, manufacturing, and supply chains) will simply wipe out China’s economic potential.
- And, in addition, war. But not between the U.S. and China, but China and one of its neighbors.
- This would destroy China’s potential and restore U.S. global dominance.
Where does Ukraine fit in here?
Especially nowhere.
In the framework of the perfect storm being prepared, it is one of the small elements triggering controlled chaos.
The world has realized that the old institutions are no longer valid:
- NATO – a fiction. The U.S. has undermined confidence in the reliability of the institution and is already hinting at leaving it.
- The U.S. is no longer the guarantor of security and could disable its missiles sold to other countries in an instant.
- The UN, OSCE – institutions that only know how to express concern.
- IAEA – well, you’re aware.
- WHO – showed their true colors during the fake pandemic.
- WTO – on hold.
- The recognition of Crimea as Russian marks the end of the international legal system.
Old institutions no longer work.
The rule of law has given way to the law of power.
And thus, we must prepare for the worst, unless, of course, there are new swans. Or black or white. Whatever happens.
The important thing is this: Ukraine can only rely on itself (!) in military and economic terms.
There are no friends. There are temporary allies. Enemies are many. Not just outside but inside the country too.
Only maximum unity (!) and efficiency will allow Ukraine to survive the approaching chaos.
Can we do it?
