Russia lost access to the naval base in Tartus after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The Kremlin was unable to support its Syrian ally due to its focus on the war against Ukraine, according to British intelligence sources.
The future of Russia's military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean remains uncertain. The loss of Tartus deprived the Russian Navy of a permanent base for maintenance and logistical support in the region, and Russia lacks alternative locations with similar capabilities, British intelligence noted.
British intelligence emphasizes that Russia is seeking to maintain influence in the Mediterranean. However, the Kremlin's current priority — the war in Ukraine — limits its ability to hold its positions in the Middle East. It is also noted that Moscow remains focused on minimizing reputational damage from the collapse of Assad’s regime and supporting logistical operations, including the activities of private military companies in Africa.
Plans for Russia to move military assets or forces to other countries, such as North Africa, remain unclear.
