Ukraine’s domestic wheat market is beginning to experience a shortage that typically occurs in October–November, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, established within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“As of October 6, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to 115,000 tons. The dynamics remain stable for now, but traders are already starting to feel some difficulties, primarily due to the low supply of grain on the domestic market. October–November are traditionally weak months in terms of supply. During this period, prices usually rise, so producers are in no hurry to sell,” analysts said.
According to their data, wheat prices rose by $1–3 per ton over the past week. Food wheat of classes 2–3 is trading in the range of $220–225 per ton, while feed wheat costs $206–211 per ton, depending on protein content.
Prices are also influenced by the situation on the global grain market.
“In the global market, we are gradually moving from high supply toward a certain balance and even a reduction. In addition, another driver of price growth is logistics problems in Russia: FSB inspections are slowing down shipments. If last season Russia exported 5–5.5 million tons of wheat in October–November, this year it will underload by about 1.5 million tons. The market is beginning to feel this,” the experts explained.
They predict a gradual strengthening of wheat prices in the coming months amid low domestic supply, shrinking global reserves, and logistical constraints in competing countries.
“By the end of October, food wheat may return to the level of $230 per ton. The seasonal model indicates further growth in January–February — up to $250–260 per ton CPT port for third-class wheat. In other words, the potential for further growth is about $30 per ton,” Pusk summarized.
