The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 by more than 3%.
"Ukraine’s economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with the emergence of new sectors and productivity upgrades in existing industries likely to contribute to job creation. Information technology and digital industries, along with agriculture and agro-processing, have emerged as Ukraine’s main comparative advantages. In addition, defense and associated industries have the potential to generate employment opportunities for skilled workers,” the report states.
According to the World Bank report, Ukraine’s GDP is now expected to grow by 2% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 5.2%.
According to the report gas imports reached their highest level in nearly two years as infrastructure damage constrained domestic production. Weaker agricultural exports also slowed growth, reflecting unfavorable weather and the European Union’s reintroduction of the pre-invasion trade regime, which tightened restrictions on key Ukrainian agri-food ECA Economic Update Fall 2025 exports. During the first half of 2025, the value of exports dropped by almost 5 percent amid a contraction of exports to the European Union, the destination of almost 60 percent of Ukraine’s shipments abroad.
“During the first half of 2025, export value fell by nearly 5% amid a decline in shipments to the European Union, which receives almost 60% of Ukraine’s exports,” the report states.
In April 2025, the World Bank had already reduced its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine from 7% to 5.2%, citing similar factors, but noting that a cessation of the full-scale Russian invasion could have enabled higher growth.
The forecast for 2027 projects GDP growth at 5%.
