Main image: NATO heads of of state and government pose for a photo at the alliance's summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall - Pool/Getty Images)
First impressions from the NATO summit: Putin wanted to wake up NATO — and he succeeded…
On the positive side:
De facto, the West has announced the start of a “small Cold War,” with a minimum duration of the new political “Ice Age” of 10–15 years. This needs to be understood and accepted — and no, the change of regime in Russia will not make this go away. The era of warm relations is over for a long time, or maybe forever.
Putin wanted to compete with Europe in the beloved Russian sport “who’s face is bigger” — now he will have the chance: Europe is stretching its military “face” to 5% of its combined GDP (except maybe Spain, for now). If this continues for long, Russia will repeat the fate of the USSR (the “trust” will burst from internal tensions).
If the “hot phase” of the war in Ukraine continues, Ukraine will almost certainly receive European money and American weapons. In other words, if Zelensky has fighters, he will also have weapons. A repeat of Biden’s “weapon drought” seems unlikely. No one is ready to lose such a strategic foothold or to miss the chance to rile up the “black blood” of the Russian bear (the Ukrainians don’t mind, and everyone else is only too happy).
Europe and America actually understand Russia’s political addiction to war and assume Russia will be a threat for decades to come (as long as demography allows) — unless a big hairy fist is held right in front of its nose. The size of this fist was essentially the main topic of the summit.
Trump still hopes the bear will have enough sense to see the size of the trap and will prefer a peace deal with the lion over an affair with the tiger. But don’t overestimate Trump’s peacefulness — it’s mostly talk, and he and Putin treat words the same way.
On the negative side:
All the wonderful measures have been scheduled to be implemented in a future era of an even more wonderful Europe — which, sadly, as the poet wrote, “neither you nor I will live to see.”
Few seem to have a clear plan about what to do if six-man motorcycle squads suddenly rush from Sumy to Narva tomorrow.
Everyone calls Putin a psycho, yet secretly hopes he will act smart and rationally (i.e., not snap). But the window of opportunity for Putin, precisely because of the summit’s decisions, is very narrow: the most rational choice now would be to snap immediately, because later it will be too late.
