I look at the magazine cover with the loud title, "How Is Putin Going to Attack Europe?" — and it doesn’t hit me. I don’t believe Putin will attack Europe. If he could, of course, he would have already. But times are different, Putin is not Stalin, and Russia is not the USSR. Let’s separate the wheat from the chaff and see what Russia really can still do today and what it simply cannot.
At the same time, we should put aside the question that Putin and Russia can always beautifully self-destruct along with the planet. For that, they don’t even need to attack anyone — it’s enough to detonate nuclear warheads and stations on their own territory. Beyond that, the global horizons of the “Russian peace” are limited by its local resources.
What can Putin do?
- Carry out peripheral invasions in both "Europe" and "Asia" at any point along its vast borders. Because of this, all of Russia’s neighbors — except China — are doomed to live in constant tension. China today can threaten anyone on its own, and others need to learn from that.
- Defeat one of the neighboring countries if no one else steps in to defend it. He might even annex that country or install a fully controlled government there. Not only can he, but he will definitely do so if he is certain no one will defend the victim.
- Create long-term global problems for someone’s local security or short-term local problems for global security and world order.
Putin and modern Russia don’t have the resources for more than that.
What can Putin NOT do?
- Wage a successful war against a united Europe, or even a partially united Europe (he lacks the human, material, and technological reserves).
- Create a real security threat to any “united Europe” country other than through sabotage and covert operations (like a "massive Salisbury").
- Exert long-term, systematic influence on international politics as a first-tier player: he can scare, but he cannot influence.
Putin’s power is illusory. It is a derivative of Europe’s weakness. Creating a system of deterrence in Europe makes Putin’s war impossible and his refusal inevitable. Putin will not attack anyone if he knows he will face resistance. Putin will definitely attack if he is sure Europe will falter.
In such a situation, the path to de-escalation lies through restoring the military power of a united Europe. But not to wage war, rather to create favorable conditions for peace. The first step — equalizing non-nuclear potentials; the second — seeking compromise from a position of strength.
