The Belarusian economy is showing signs of slowdown amid problems in the Russian economy. From January to July 2025, the country’s GDP grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, compared to the planned 4.1%. Key export-oriented sectors—industry, transport, and IT—showed virtually no growth, indicating weak external demand and limited production capacity.
Agriculture is also lagging: as of August 1, grain has been harvested from only 22.3% of the area, compared to nearly 60% last year.
The foreign trade balance is deteriorating: in June, the deficit increased by $240 million month-on-month due to reduced exports, particularly of potash. Despite this, the Ministry of Economy plans to focus on exports, forecasting a 3.7% increase next year. However, in the first half of the year, shipments have already declined by the same 3.7%. Competition on the Russian market is intensifying even for local producers, while Belarusian companies are losing their remaining niches in distant markets.
Inflationary pressure is also rising: in July, annual inflation was 7.4%, expected to reach 7.5% in August, and 8–9% in the fall, compared to the planned 5%
